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What is Saudi-America forced to do in front of Iran?
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What is Saudi-America forced to do in front of Iran?

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On September 14, a drone attack took place at Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco. The Huti rebels claimed responsibility.

But America said that Iran is behind this attack and Iran refused it.

After the dramatic attack on Saudi Arabia’s most important oil bases, a lot of aggressive statements are coming.

The attack on these oil bases in Saudi Arabia, important for the global economy, has caused a lot of damage. Saudi Arabia’s air force has the support of the United States. Saudi Arabia has also been assisted by the United States in airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. But this time the opponents of Saudi Arabia have shown by this attack that they are capable on their own.

After this attack, once again that debate has become alive to what extent Iran is providing technology and other help to Houthi rebels. The atmosphere was already hot in the Gulf and the situation has become tenser after this attack.

The Trump administration’s stated policy is to create ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran. But this attack has also exposed some failures of the Trump administration.

Between claims and counter-claims, there is still much that we do not know. Huti rebels have used drones and missiles in the past to target Saudi targets.

But the drone strikes had limited success. But in this attack, the exact target was targeted and the level at which it was executed, it became a completely different level of attack.

So were these really invading drones attacked, or was it a missile attack? And if it was a missile attack, how could Saudi Arabia’s air defense system not have a clue?

Were these attacks from areas controlled by Houthi rebels or from elsewhere? Can pro-Iran groups in Iraq join it? Or can Iran have a direct role in it?

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not delay in pointing fingers at Iran, even before any intelligence was available.

Iran has established good relations with the Houthi rebels and no doubt has helped them gain the ability to strike long distances. Whether it is UAVs (attacking drones) or missiles.

In 2018, a report by a panel of UN experts pointed to similarities between Houthi’s Qasif-1 bomber drone and Iran’s Ababil-T. A detailed study report said that Iran has provided various weapons against the Yemeni rebels.

A similar conclusion was given in the March 2017 report of the Conflict Armament Research Organization, an independent organization. This report was on the part of Iran providing invading drones to Houthi rebels.

However, the range of Qasif-1 and Ababil-T is not more than 100-150 km while the Khurais oil field is 770 km from the Yemeni border. So if this attack happened with a drone, then it was a drone with a completely different design, capability, and power.

Iran and possibly the Houthi rebels also have methods to strike long distances, but there is little evidence of its use in the Yemen conflict. This attack can also be carried out with some kind of cruise missile that is fired from Iraq or Iran, but to reach a conclusion, authentic intelligence will be required.

However, a few days later, the details will not matter so much. Damage has been done at the level of diplomacy. America and Saudi Arabia are arch enemies of Iran.

Following the arrest of a ship carrying Iranian oil from Gibraltar, Iran has also openly seized a tanker bearing the British flag.

So the fingerprints of Iranians are seen in the strategic campaign of the Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia’s oil bases.

The question is, what is America going to do or can do about it now?

The answer may be – nothing more. The Trump administration stands firmly in Saudi Arabia, while the unpopularity of the Yemen war in America is increasing.

There is a growing feeling in Capitol Hill that Saudi Arabia’s air campaign in Yemen is meaningless which is turning the previously poor country into a humanitarian disaster.

But a new thing has emerged from the attacks against oil bases. Despite full cooperation with Saudi Arabia and a strategy of maximum pressure on Iran, the Trump administration is giving mixed signals to Iran.

Donald Trump aspires to have a face-to-face meeting with the Iranians during the upcoming United Nations General Assembly and has recently removed his national security adviser, John Bolton. Bolton has been a champion of regime change in Iran.

Iran is fighting a war of weaknesses against its powerful allies against the powerful. In strategic textbooks, it is called ‘Hybrid Conflict’. He is taking some strategies from Russian books. For example, clean refusal, stealth war, cyber operation and information warfare.

Iran knows that Donald Trump, despite all his threats and uncertainties, wants to remove US forces from military conflicts, as well as to avoid new complications. That is why Iran has been able to create ‘maximum pressure’.

The danger is that this miscalculation can lead to a big conflict that no one would want.

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Rajveer Sekhawat

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