After Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar broke ties with BJP and formed the government with RJD, Congress and other parties, three issues have come in the center of national discourse. One, will Nitish Kumar be the prime ministerial candidate in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections? Second, will the opposition party be able to form a ‘grand alliance’ at the national level to defeat the BJP?

Third, will Narendra Modi be able to save his power in 2024? Many analysts have also given their symbolic judgment against Modi and BJP without asking the public through their amazing knowledge-skills and election data. Lok Sabha elections are two years away now. In such a situation, it is advisable to prepare by the parties.

Yet the intellectual delirium of rejecting the BJP on the basis of the political developments in Bihar is beyond comprehension. National parties depend on their performance in various states for a majority in the Lok Sabha.

How will BJP get a Powerful return in Bihar?

Since 40 members of the Lok Sabha are elected from Bihar, it is a big state in this sense. That is why if the BJP has to return to power, it will have to perform better in Bihar. Some analysts are of the view that coming together of JD(U) and RJD will cause huge loss to the BJP. Such people are actually forgetting the example of Uttar Pradesh. In the general elections of the year 2019, the SP and BSP formed an alliance against the BJP. Large sections of media and analysts had predicted huge losses for the BJP, but what was the result?

The BJP-Apna Dal alliance won 64 of the 80 seats. At the same time, BSP was reduced to 10 and SP to five seats. The people of Bihar know the difference between national elections and assembly elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the people of Bihar had reposed faith in the leadership of Modi. Then the BJP-JDU-LJP alliance had won 39 out of 40 seats in the state. Now voting has overtaken caste math.

How do Bihar People Vote?

People are voting according to class interests keeping in mind law and order, national security, development and public welfare. The parties and leaders doing identity politics on the basis of caste have not yet been able to sense this change. That is why they blame the EVMs, the Election Commission or the ruling party for their defeat.

At the same time, the national leadership of the BJP, mainly Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is continuously increasing the connection with the public. He interacts with the public every month through the program ‘Mann Ki Baat’. This is a new experiment in democracy. The funds of inclusive schemes of development and public welfare are getting directly to the beneficiaries in their accounts through ‘Technology’, which was unimaginable for them. The middlemen are out in this.

The way Modi has given financial security to the poor, health security, crop insurance security to farmers, women’s security and life security in daily life is a wonderful example of class politics. There is no doubt that today national politics has become Modi centric. Most political parties and leaders still look at elections through the traditional identityist, casteist and opportunistic prism, but Modi has changed the entire grammar of national politics.

Instead of identity politics, he has promoted a people’s politics that fulfills the dreams of the poor. Beyond the web of casteist-politics, people have been connected to class-politics and have given preference to inclusive-politics by giving up extravagant-politics. Analysts who have already started indicating election results against Modi, based on the state-wise data of the last Lok Sabha, are also cleverly making some room for their defence.

People want a strong government

At the national level, people want a strong government which is clean, transparent, committed and has its own identity at the national and global level. The Modi government has earned such an image that even the former Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan does not tire of glorifying it.

That’s why Mexican President Andrés Manuel López has proposed a committee consisting of three people, Modi, the Pope and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, to try to prevent global conflicts. Will Modi and BJP win or lose in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, but its fathom will be known only when we do a grassroots study.

What does Post-Poll Studies says?

Our research center ‘CSSP’ estimated 45 per cent votes (272 seats) for BJP and 35 per cent votes for SP in 2022 assembly elections, which turned out to be correct. Similarly, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-Apna Dal alliance had estimated 60 to 65 seats in the state and they got 64 seats. These were post-poll studies that try to understand the voting behavior of the voter. Such studies may also be wrong, but if truth and transparency are kept in the study, then the signs become clear.

Thus, forecasts two years before the election express the will of the analysts, not the public. Voters are the most important factor in the selection of national leadership, but most analysts are giving preference to the upheaval of political parties. Do they think people are fools?

The opposition has neither a national alternative to the BJP nor a homogeneous ideology. Nor is there any common leadership, where there are many contenders like Rahul Gandhi, Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal, Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav.

Will there be any Powerful govt after removal of Modi?

The question arises in the mind of the public that there should be a change of power in a democracy, but does the opposition have Modi. And is there any alternative to BJP? Then what will you do after winning the election? Or is only the removal of Modi an issue?

Modi’s connection with the public, clean image, his commitment to the country, taking development plans to the people, better election campaign and election-management, etc. are many such components, which can defeat the wishes of analysts.