India estimated to have 1 million Covid deaths by 1 August: IHME

The institution previously estimated 960,000 deaths by this date.

The figures of corona virus infection and deaths from it are increasing in the country. A US-based Global Health Research Organization estimates that if ‘drastic measures’ are not taken, by August 1, there could be more than 1 million covid deaths in India. Earlier the institution had estimated 960,000 deaths by this date.

“The situation in India looks very bad without taking drastic steps to strengthen the health system, adherence to social distancing and effective use of face masks,” the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said in the policy briefing.

IHME is the independent research wing of the University of Washington, Seattle.

The briefing stated, “IHME estimates that 1,019,000 covid deaths may occur in India by 1 August 2021. In the worst case, the number of deaths could be up to 1.2 million.” The estimate is based on data from 25 to 30 April.

“If universal mask coverage (95%) is achieved in the next week, our model will reduce the estimated deaths by 73,000 by August 1.”
IHME

On what basis is the estimate?

The IHME said its estimate was based on ‘what is most likely to happen’. IHME said, “If the vaccine is given at this speed and how the government implements social distancing rules, the model is based on it.”

The IHME estimates that the peak of daily covid deaths will occur on May 20, when 12,000 deaths a day can occur. The institution had earlier estimated the date of May 16 for this peak.