The absolute number of people infected with COVID-19 in India may never be known but much of the scientific community agrees the downward trajectory of the disease is real and can likely be attributed to ‘localised’ herd immunity and a younger population.
As scientists attempt to understand India’s sliding COVID count, the country on Tuesday recorded 16,375 new COVID-19 cases, more than six times lower than the highest daily spike of 97,894 on September 16 and the lowest in six months. While there is a glimmer of hope and India’s COVID-19 numbers are on a definite decline for a combination of reasons, a vaccination programme continues to be important, particularly given the presence of a mutant, more transmissible strain, several experts said while cautioning against infection upticks ahead.
“It’s not the absolute numbers, but the trajectory that is important,” said Shahid Jameel, director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University, looking at India’s COVID graph.
Noting that it is impossible and impractical to have true numbers during a pandemic, or even after that, unless everyone is tested, the virologist said COVID-19 cases in the country have gone down steadily since the peak in mid-September.
Reflecting the national trend, Delhi’s graph has also been on a downward slide with 384 fresh COVID-19 cases recorded on Monday, the lowest in over seven months, raising hopes that herd immunity may have set in.
Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that sets in when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection. “Nothing has changed drastically in testing or behaviour since mid-September. So relatively speaking, it’s a downward trajectory,” Jameel told PTI. The country’s average, he said, hides many localised spikes and that would continue.
While the actual numbers may well be underestimated, the trend of lower numbers appears to be real and the rate of spread of the infection is likely to have reduced, said immunologist Satyajit Rath.
“A possible explanation for this may be that crowded urban localities and neighbourhoods where spread was very rapid earlier might be largely saturated, a form of hyperlocal ‘herd immunity’,” Rath, from New Delhi’s National Institute of Immunology (NII), told PTI.
The lack of more travel and the distancing measures — however poorly implemented — may be keeping rates of spread somewhat lower in other less crowded neighbourhoods, he said.
Given the large number of infections in the first wave, it is certainly conceivable that some population immunity has set in and it is difficult for the virus to transmit as easily as it had in the first round, said epidemiologist and economist Ramanan Laxminarayan.
For that reason, it is doubtful India will have a second wave as big as the first one, he explained. “India has been protected by its relatively young population — 65 per cent of the country is under the age of 35 and infections in those age groups have likely slowed down overall transmission,” Laxminarayan, founder and director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy in Washington, told PTI.
Jameel added that while it is unclear what per cent infection or exposure is needed for herd immunity for COVID-19, most epidemiologists believe it would be 60 per cent or above.
“If that be the case, we may be closer to it in some but not all locations,” Jameel said.
He noted that it is hard to say if the first wave is ending and if there will be a second wave.
“That depends on how many people have been infected. Considering that we went through two important periods without any significant upturn – Dussehra to Diwali festive season and Bihar elections – I think that there would be enough infected people and we will not see a second wave,” said the virologist.
Referring to the second ICMR survey which showed an average 6.6 per cent positivity across 70 districts three months ago, Jameel said it translates to 90 to 100 million infected people.
“Other surveys, e.g. urban centres, data from diagnostic company Thyrocare etc. put the number much higher — 300 to 400 million,” he said.
Positivity is the percentage of all coronavirus tests performed that are actually positive.
Outbreak modelling for India, said Jameel, suggests about 30 per cent overall infection, with 50 per cent in large and densely populated cities.
“What we are seeing is a complex mixture of high exposure in densely populated areas (cities) where the outbreak also moves faster, and low exposure in villages and rural districts where the outbreak may still be expanding, but doing so slowly,” said Jameel, adding this will create a situation where the return to baseline will be prolonged.
Advising caution, Laxminarayan said there certainly seems to be a natural decline in the numbers of infections overall across most states, but that has been seen before in many other countries where there is now a rise in cases. Rath agreed with Laxminaryanan, saying the virus spread is not in the form of a uniform ‘wave’ but the result of very many variable local ‘waves’.
“It is quite likely the spread of infection will ‘plateau’, so to say, and will be sustained at a relatively lower level,” he said.
Discussing a vaccine, Laxminarayan said everyone should get a shot, regardless of whether or not people have had a COVID infection.
“Immunity through direct exposure can be variable and not as reliable as immunity acquired through vaccination,” he said.
“Infection upticks are quite possible, so vaccinations are going to be very useful. And testing for pre-existing immunity before vaccination is not easy or cheap to implement,” Rath added. The vaccination will in all likelihood be done without any consideration of excluding previously exposed people, he said.
Jameel agreed.
“You can always test before giving a vaccine, but that would double cost and logistics. It’s easier to vaccinate everyone at risk, who is willing to be vaccinated,” he added.
With a more contagious variant now in India and detected so far in 33 countries, it is not known yet how the transmission will play out, the scientists said. Now that vaccines are becoming available, they should be deployed.
The experts also debunked the “myth” that the Indian population is genetically advantaged in tackling this virus better. Similar mortality rates, they said, are seen across all of South and Southeast Asia.
“Once we account for differences in age structure of population, there is not much difference in case fatality rates across countries, if measured correctly,” Laxminarayan said. Rath concurred with Laxminarayan, saying there is no strong clear evidence that the illness is less severe in India compared to elsewhere.
“I see no reason so far to invoke speculation about ‘better immunity’ or any genetic resistance in India. I have seen no evidence for either of those possibilities,” he added.
The road ahead is still tricky.
Now that the vaccines are rolling out and will cover large parts of the world over the next six-12 months, one other thing to watch out for are vaccine-escape mutants, said Jameel.
“These would be viral variants that can escape vaccine generated immunity. This would only be possible by means of dense genomic sequencing, especially those who get infected even after getting vaccines,” he added.
Ajaz Patel, the skilled left-arm spinner from New Zealand, gained international attention in 2021 when…
Are you dealing with an unusual headache? It could be a cervical or cervicogenic headache.…
In a shocking development, YouTuber Praneeth Hanumanthu has become embroiled in controversy following his detention by the Telangana Cyber Security Bureau. Initially arrested for making offensive remarks during a podcast, Hanumanthu's predicament has escalated, resulting in further allegations under the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act after he tested positive for cannabis consumption. The Context of the Detention The origins of Hanumanthu's difficulties can be linked to a podcast he hosted, which included a conversation that many considered highly unseemly. During this episode, he made inappropriate comments regarding the dynamics between a father and daughter, igniting outrage among viewers and critics alike. This incident quickly garnered the attention of both the public and law enforcement, prompting an investigation by the Telangana Cyber Security Bureau. The primary allegation centered around his remarks, which were deemed to have crossed the boundaries of acceptable discourse. This scenario raises broader inquiries about accountability and the duties of content creators, particularly in an era where online platforms can amplify messages to a large audience. As a public figure, Hanumanthu's statements carry substantial weight, and the backlash he has encountered signifies society's increasing intolerance towards harmful rhetoric. Charges Related to Substances Things took a turn for the worse for Hanumanthu when, following his arrest, authorities opted to perform a drug test. The results confirmed the presence of cannabis in his system, leading to additional allegations under the NDPS Act. This legislation is a strict law in India aimed at combating substance abuse and trafficking. By testing positive for drug use, Hanumanthu not only worsened his legal troubles but also further tarnished his reputation. The addition of drug-related charges initiates an important discourse about the effects of substance use among influencers and celebrities. Many young individuals look up to figures like Hanumanthu, and such disclosures can have significant consequences on their perceptions and behaviors. The fallout from his actions extends beyond legal issues; it also encompasses the ethical obligations that accompany public visibility. Reactions from the Public and Consequences The public’s reaction to Hanumanthu's arrest has been varied. Many viewers voiced their outrage over both his initial remarks and his later substance use. Social media has been inundated with discussions, memes, and criticisms, illustrating the swift spread of information and opinions in today’s digital environment. Critics contend that individuals like Hanumanthu should be held accountable for their influence, particularly when it concerns endorsing a healthy lifestyle and responsible behavior. On the other hand, some supporters have rallied behind him, advocating for the necessity of empathy and understanding. They highlight the pressures that accompany being a public figure, especially in a hyper-connected world where every action is scrutinized. This divide in public sentiment mirrors a broader societal conversation about celebrity culture, accountability, and the intricacies of mental health and substance use. The Wider Picture of Substance Abuse Hanumanthu's situation is also part of a larger discourse regarding drug abuse in India, especially among the youth. As discussions about mental health and substance use become more widespread, incidents like this underscore the pressing need for awareness and education about addiction and its root causes. The stigma surrounding drug use often hampers open dialogue about the topic, leaving many to endure in silence. Moreover, the legal implications of the NDPS Act spark questions about how society addresses drug-related offenses. While the act aims to deter substance abuse, critics argue that such laws can disproportionately impact certain demographics and do not tackle the underlying causes of addiction. Conversations around harm reduction, rehabilitation, and public health strategies are increasingly relevant within the framework of these laws. Prospects Ahead for Hanumanthu As Hanumanthu navigates the forthcoming legal hurdles, his future remains unpredictable. He faces possible legal repercussions for both his unsatisfactory comments and his substance use, which could greatly affect his career and personal life. The scenario serves as a cautionary example for content creators about the consequences of their expressions and actions, highlighting the need for thoughtful engagement with their audience.…
Nimrat Kaur is an Indian actress celebrated for her contributions to Hindi cinema and American…
Grey divorce refers to the increasing trend of couples aged 50 and older choosing to…
In 2024, YouTube sensation MrBeast, born Jimmy Donaldson, has captivated audiences worldwide not only through…