Corona: Has the second wave in India weakened now ?
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India is grappling with a second wave of corona virus infection.
However, the government claims that the impact of the epidemic has slowed in many areas and cases of infection are decreasing.
How is the infection rate increasing?
In India, the infection of Kovid-19 began to increase in the middle of March and it started increasing rapidly, by April 30, it made a record and more than 4,00,000 cases were reported in one day in the country.
In the next few days, the cases of infection fell to 3,60,000 on 3 May and it was estimated that Kovid’s peak in India was over.
But the cases of infection have increased rapidly in the last few days. If we look at the data for weeks, then on Monday, the numbers are usually seen falling.
On Wednesday 5 May, 4.12 lakh record cases of infection were reported.
If we look at the average of the seven-day infection rate, that too is continuously increasing.
Are tests being done continuously?
The extent of the spread of virus infection can be known only from the testing being done on a large scale.
Twenty million tests are being conducted in India every day and at the beginning of this month, this figure had fallen to 15 lakhs.
However, it improved on Wednesday, May 5 and again there were 20 million sample tests.
Due to such a temporary fall in the test, a decrease in cases of infection was seen in early May.
At the same time, the test has also been variable in many parts of the country, in some areas there has been a decrease in cases.
“A similar situation was observed in the last peak, in September,” says World Health Organization (WHO) consultant and economist Doctor Rizzo John.
“In India, the rate of testing decreased when the daily infection cases were going to cross 100,000.”
When the administration said that the cases in some states are decreasing, at the same time there was a decline in testing in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana and in the capital Delhi.
In the middle of April, when Delhi was doing 100,000 tests daily, the cases of infection daily remained around 16,000.
But at the end of April, when the incidence of infection increased by more than 55%, the testing rate fell by 20%. Which shows how high the rate of infection will actually be.
Similar trends were followed by the states of Gujarat and Telangana.
Doctor John says that the ability of testing is clearly visible under heavy pressure, where people do not have the facility to do tests because there is a huge burden on the health centers.
The testing rate for 1,000 people in India is 1.3 while in the US it is 3 and in the UK it is 15,
In what ratio are the tests positive?
According to Johns Hopkins University, the highest rate of positive tests shows that corona virus is not detected in a large number of people in a community.
Last year, the WHO advised that countries should not relax their restrictions until the positive test rate decreased by 5% for two consecutive weeks.
“The test positivity rate is still very high which is 20% nationwide,” says Gautam Menon, professor and mathematics modeler at Physics and Biology at Ashoka University.
“So that’s why I believe that there is no reason to believe that the second wave has passed.”
What kind of tests are being done?
There are two types of tests being conducted especially in India. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is considered a test of a gold standard.
However, there are also reports about this test that even in symptomatic patients, this test is not able to catch the new variant.
At the same time, the health authorities of some states are emphasizing on rapid antigen test which is very quick but it is much less reliable.
About 35% of the tests conducted in April in Delhi were done with rapid antigen pattern.
The Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) has now advised that rapid antigen tests should also be done to deal with cases of increasing infection in the country.
Along with this, compulsory PCR test for passengers has also been relaxed so that ‘the pressure on the lab can be reduced’.
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